OLIMPIJA 2 - 1 BLACK WINGS LINZ (OT)
DRAGONS FINALLY CLIP THE BLACK WINGS
HORAK HOLDS FIRM WHILE PANCE AND MAŠIČ STRIKE
ENORMOUS TURNAROUND SINCE LAST TIME WE FACED LINZ
LINEUP CHANGES
Bonino is out with illness, no Mehle.
Lavoie is demoted to the 4th line, but remains on PP1. I'm curious to know what has caused Lavoie's plummet down the lineup; rumours of attitude issues would go some way to explain this.
Bičevskis goes up to 2C to replace Bonino, Beričič to 3C and Sodja as 4C.
STARS OF THE GAME
I'm going to do what the uninspired teachers do and give my first star award to multiple people:
* Lukaś Horák (26/27 for 0.963), Žiga Pance (G) and Kale Kerbashian (A) - all three of these men are extremely intelligent and superbly talented hockey players. All three were vital to our victory. Horák's GSAx (goals saved above expected) must have been at least in the 2-3 range; Pance made such a savvy drive to the net to receive Červeny's pass for the late game-tying goal; Kerbashian expertly denied a goal-scoring chance at one end and created Mašič's overtime winner at the other. Possibly a bit harsh on Bine not to include him here, but Kale did all the work and that's what I want to recognise.
Honourable mentions: if anybody actually reads the game flow section, you will see that two names pop up frequently - Kapel and Ćosić, both at their respective ends of the ice. Confident displays from both of these players, who rightly play with a bit of swagger.
PREVIEW CHECKLIST
Here's what I thought we needed to do to beat BWL, as we did...
Were we more physical? Emphatically, yes. Ćosić the standout, as expected, but the likes of Ćerveny, Lavoie, Mahkovec and even Mašič and Ege also got involved. Really pleased to see this. Lots of finishing checks, denying zone entries (Ćosić in particular, what a beast) and stick lifts in front of net. I'm glad I'm on the same wavelength as the coaching staff - we urgently needed to improve in this area and clearly they agreed, worked on it over the break and executed to great success in the game. *Chef's kiss*
Did we employ more speed and deception? Yes, sir! On offense and defence, we were more deceptive (e.g. Ege's backhand, no-look pass to evade pressure and create a chance the other way). This helped us exit our defensive zone and transition to offense more smoothly, quickly and dangerously. Well done, fellas!
Did we win, as a result? 😉
While I would love to position myself as some gifted hockey savant, these aspects above are fundamental in good hockey, especially around playoff time. Still, I sincerely admire AT's work with the team to infuse this within their play over the break.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS
- To do this without Bonino was seriously impressive. Well done to Bičevskis for filling in as 2C, Beričič for 3C and Sodja for 4C.
- This game makes me believe AT should get the chance to have a full season next year - but only if we swap out Rodman for a specialist powerplay coach. AT is demonstrating his chops as a leader of men and this kind of turnaround/resilience is good enough for me to want him back. However, just him on his own may not be enough for the leadership group to evade the temptations of a bigger name coaching hire in the summer. That's why I think that pairing AT with a dedicated PP assistant coach would make a lot of sense - you get the best of both worlds, with an incumbent who has proven he can lead and a new influence who can help with our offense. In that sense, it'd be like an NFL situation such as in Seattle. Mike McDonald is the defensive-minded head coach, like AT - and they've just brought in Klint Kubiak as the Offensive Coordinator. Let's do something similar - keep AT, but hire someone with skills and background in offensive play to assist. I need to attend a practice session, but I honestly don't know what value Rodman is adding at this point, other than being another coaching body (and a lot of fan resentment). Let's replace him with someone who can add real value to the team and help us break down opposing defences more efficiently and effectively.
WEIRD STATS
- Per ŽG, we were 0-12 since 2021 against Linz. Now, we are 1-1 against them in the 24-25 season.
- We had a double-up on near-misses:
Rok Kapel - hit the post twice. This man is properly "snakebit", as a Red Dead Redemption character would say. By my reckoning he has hit the post this season over double as many times as the next man, Lavoie. His resurgence continues, though - he's playing with real confidence, which is wonderful to see after a challenging start to the season.
Nik Simšič - had his 2-on-1 pass attempts broken up twice. Take a shot, Nik! Easier said than done as usual, but it was frustrating to not even test the goalie on two prime rush chances. It's ok to be selfish sometimes...
- We are now 9/11 in OT this season - a sensational upgrade on last year (5/11), good for 82% (versus 45%, a 37% increase). That's almost automatic and something that should give the team a lot of confidence now that the pre-playoffs and playoffs are approaching.
- I realise that I didn't put this anywhere else, but keep in mind, last game against BWL we lost 8-1 - this time, we controlled the game and limited their chances far better.
NORMAL STATS
Shots-saves at even strength:
P1 8-8
P2 3-6
P3 4-6
As you can see, a low-event game in terms of shots on goal, but a pretty even one that we contested very well against a strong team that we have long had major issues against.
Shooting % - 2/24 (incl. OT) - 8%. A bit lower than average, but Tirronen, the hulking Linz goalie, is notoriously tough to score on.
Save %: 26/27 for 0.963. Outstanding as usual from 61.
PP: 0 for 4. The 4th was a bit of a messy one, with some 4 on 4 before the PP. Still, you'd want to be scoring on one of these opportunities at least.
PK: 2 for 2. Excellent, although we were lucky to avoid one going in when the net was wide open.
GAME FLOW
P1
1845 Kapel hits the post/crossbar on our first shot. It's been something of a speciality of his this season, unfortunately!
1600 We give up a 3 on 1 after an O-zone turnover and a fast transition from Linz. Not something we want to repeat.
1425 Ege with a nice deception on a D-zone exit, leading to a shot on goal. He backhand reversed it to a waiting player who hit the neutral zone hard.
1411 Juicy hit by Lavoie. Keep 'em coming, boys!
1321 Two very poor failed zone exits, which leads to an extended pressure sequence for Linz that we are lucky to withstand. Vodlan in particular whiffs on an extremely simple zone exit at the blue line. On a human level I want to see him get more ice time to get a proper chance to show what he can do, but on a team-focused level you won't be getting on the ice if you can't manage stuff like that. It's a little thing but it can be the difference between a win and a loss. This time of year, that counts.
1228 Červeny finishes his check with a resounding hit into the boards.
1220 Mašič shows good strength to force BWL Knott wide on a power move. Really pleased to see this, well done Bine! Preview checklist is being activated so far!!
1100 A crisp left to right pass on the blue line sets up a powerful Bohinc one-timer that is pad saved. I really want to see him blast one in before the season is over.
1014 Mahkovec with a good hit on the forecheck.
814 We are contesting well in DZ and NZ with Linz, but seem to be struggling to make regular line changes. Jack Han, the Liiga video coach I am studying under, has shown me research saying 40 second shifts are the most effective for chance creation and neutralisation. We consistently exceed that, and our play suffers the longer these guys exhaust themselves on the ice. That short of a shift may not be realistic to regularly repeat in this league, but shorter and sharper shifts are definitely something for us to think about as we move forward.
740 Kerbashian with a brilliant forced turnover in the OZ and textbook crossover skating to give him a burst of speed to spread the play.
639 PEN BWL - interference.
Despite being demoted to the 4th Line, with Bonino's absence Lavoie plays on PP1. They still believe in his offensive potential, then, if not the rest of his game, apparently.
PP1: 72, 9, 19, 55, 65.
PP2: 15, 13, 70, 12, 8. A pretty handy PP2 there, even with Bonino and Mehle out!
Linz seem to be on a box PK rather than the usual diamond formation. I wonder if this befuddled us a bit, as we were pretty ineffective against it.
315 Ege with a decisive stick lift net-front.
221 Ćosić with a great pinch at the OZ blue line.
Pinch definition: Pinch – A pinch is when a defenseman either (a) attempts to hold the offensive blue line when the opponent has the puck and is attempting to clear their zone, or (b) leaves the blue line and pushes further into the offensive zone to play the puck.
135 Simšič with a 2 on 1 breakaway chance. His pass is broken up but the sequence continues and we get a chance with a deflection in front that Tirronen saves.
P2
1854 GOAL BWL - Linz score on the first shot of P2. We lose possession with 3 forwards high in the neutral zone, leaving Ege back for a 2 on 1.The Linz forward does a great job delaying, selling the pass and faking a backhand move before shooting high over Horak's blocker. Deception creates offense, as my preview suggested!
0-1
1750 PEN BWL - hook.
PP2 gets a strong shot off in both circles, one from Kapel and one from Mahkovec. Both saved.
1537 Hebar does a brilliant job of standing a BWL attack up at the blue line, denying multiple zone entries in a single sequence. Really impressive stuff from someone I want to see a lot more of next season.
1300 Mašič has a high danger chance during a Smash Attack, but it's saved.
1202 PEN OLL - Sodja high stick.
Horak stops a very dangerous chance and a breakdown in coverage leads to a wide-open net that BWL can't take advantage of, with their wraparound pass mercifully sailing right out of the DZ.
950 Power shot by Pavlin. Tirronen takes a couple of whacks net-front at Bičevskis, who must have done something right ^^
841 PEN BWL - crosscheck on Gregorc.
727 Lavoie with a god look but his shot sails wide.
640 Kapel hits the post for a second time! Poor guy!
520 Horak covers a 3 on 2 chance well.
323 A deft backhand pickup by Ćosić that kills off what would have been a 1 on 0 rush chance.
249 Simšič has another 2 on 1 pass broken up, this time with Sabla waiting. Ayayay, we need to be testing the goalie on these chances!
157 Beričič finds Červeny for a deflection chance that goes just wide.
113 Bohinc copies Mašič's good example from earlier, forcing a power move wide to help out Horak.
P3
1839 PEN OLL - trip by Ćosić.
Diamond PK for us - unlike Tampa Bay, who play with the intent to create shorthanded offense, we opt for a line change when we regain possession and clear. Something to consider in future, perhaps.
46s left in PK - PEN BWL - it becomes 4 on 4, with a holding call on BWL.
We have 1:04 of PP time but BWL get a shot on goal before we do :(
1323 Ćosić with a monster hit to stonewall a zone entry by BWL. With a performance like this, he's making a bid to be my jersey purchase next season (currently planning on Bohinc after getting Pavlin's last year and Kale's this year).
1144 Another hit by Mahkovec; we are noticeably finishing checks in ways we weren't really before the break. Well done AT for instilling this!
630 Great job evading pressure by Ćosić, with 2 BWL players trying to take his head off in the OZ blue line area. Duck, dodge and dive!
554 BWL miss a chance with the back post wide open.
251 Kapel has another high danger chance in front, blocked.
157 Pance is sprung for a rush by Červeny - his first effort is pad saved, but he bundles it in on the second go!!!! We are level in the final two minutes!
1-1
OT
It looks like Sabla takes the faceoff, wins it and immediately changes? Slightly confusing! Afterwards it's Kerbashian, Mahkovec and Mašič.
437 Kerbashian with a sensational stick to deny BWL a sure-fire back door goal chance. He then sets up a move the other way, leading to a give-and-go between him and Mašič that the latter scores on! What a play by KK to win it for us!!! I've already admitted my bias towards him as I know he is a great human being, but as my South African friends back home would say, "gee whiz" - unbelievable play in the biggest of spots by Kerbashian. Look beyond the superficial and you see the immense skill that he deploys for us out there that weaves together the tapestry of our victories. The man's an artist!
ATWAL'S REPLACEMENT ARRIVES
Shawn Lalonde, a 34-year old right-handed defenseman, joined the club today. According to the OLL PR team, they are trying to get him ready to play in the game tomorrow against Villach.
He has good pedigree, as a former 3rd round draft pick of the NHL's Chicago Blackhawks. He had two full seasons with their AHL affiliate team before playing 5 seasons in Germany's DEL, 1 in Sweden's SHL and Finland's Liiga, 3 in Russia's KHL and most recently 2 seasons in Slovakia. A well-travelled fellow!
He is a like-for-like replacement for the injured Arvin Atwal in more ways than one. Apart from being an experienced RD, he also has 103 penalty minutes in 30 games this season, averaging out at 3.43 per game. He's going to have to clean that up a bit for us, but having a game 'with sandpaper', as they say in the NHL, is certainly useful come playoff time.
On Elite Prospects, he is described as a "heavy shooter", "physical defenseman" and "two-way defenseman", meaning he has some offense to his game. That hasn't necessarily been borne out recently, with only 4 goals in the last 4 seasons, but perhaps it can help create offense for others. His best outing in pro hockey was for Kölner Haie in the DEL, scoring 36 points in 50 games (12G 24A) - with 102 penalty minutes 😅. There's a difference between being physical and being a bit silly, and we know Atwal took some time to find that line where he could impose himself on the opposition without gifting powerplays to them. It will be interesting to see where Lalonde falls on that balancing act. I'm not sure the ICE League refs will be as lenient with 'playoff hockey' as the NHL's are, for instance.
In terms of where he'll fit in, I think that although AT likes Mašič and Pavlin as the first pair, with 17 coming back from a serious injury they may put Lalonde right onto the first pairing with Mašič, dropping Pavlin down to the 3rd pair with Ćosić (as they started out this season). Having a hyper-physical 3rd pair is a playoff luxury, so look forward to that! In this scenario, Gregorc and Ege stay together on the 2nd pair.
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