Sunday, March 9, 2025

SEASON REVIEW PART 1: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY (PLUS PP2 POST-MORTEM)

The Good

New ownership

Mr Lefebvre's influence on the team dramatically improved its professionalism and achievements in a range of areas. Most notably, this was with regard to player recruitment (Nick Bonino being the prime example here), merchandising (you wouldn't believe how happy I was to see some keyrings on sale in the shop) and gameday entertainment and activities (for all that North America gets wrong, they certainly know how to run successful sporting events).
Even with how devastatingly the season ended, I still believe in the organisation because Mr Lefebvre is involved and has a clear vision for where we want to go and how we're going to get there. 

I don't want to minimalise the efforts of the incumbents, such as Mr Butara or Mr Ulčar; Jure Gmajnar has also done a wonderful job of negotiating partnerships for the team and running a tight PR ship. With all that said, it remains undeniable that Mr Lefebvre has had a hugely significant impact on the team and I look forward to seeing the continued evolution of this relationship over the off-season and into next season.

Mid-season recruitment 

Kerbashian's injury was a body-blow early on in the season, but the team did well to scout and sign Rudolf Červeny, who (despite also getting injured) managed to play his way into extending his temporary contract to the end of the season. The big one, of course, was signing a former NHL player in Nick Bonino. This brought some serious fanfare to proceedings, even if Bonino's hard-nosed style and subtle brilliance wasn't always the flashiest publicity payoff. Shawn Lalonde's late arrival only saw three games, but some bone-juddering hits mean this author would like to see him back next season.

Sequences of success

We had two extended periods where we looked like we could legitimately challenge to win the league. Our start to the season under Coach Karhula set fans' imaginations racing, winning 8 of the first 11 games (including the sweep of Carinthian teams, VSV, KAC and G99). Then, after a doom-laden loss streak, Coach Karhula was sacked. AT was promoted and promptly went 8 of 10 (before two crushing losses to KAC and BWL. 

These sequences of success showed the team at their full potential, which made the crashes back down to earth of the loss streak, the demolition jobs performed on us by playoff teams late in the season and the brutal Pre-Playoff lockdown by HCP all the more painful.

Successful injury recoveries

The flipside of the 'Injuries' section below is that there were many successful returns from injury. Some of the longer-term ones included Kerbashian, Červeny, Pance and Pavlin. The only players who didn't manage a return were those injured late in the season, such as Arvin Atwal and Luka Vodlan. Both of these are uncertain to rejoin the squad next year; nevertheless, I wish them the absolute best in their recoveries.

 

The Bad

Signing Alex Lavoie to replace Trevor Gooch

Maybe this is just my perception, as the team did sign Sabolič, too. Yet, I always viewed the signing of the top-scorer in the French League as the natural successor to Trevor Gooch, our previous top points-getter. If this was the intention, it was an abject failure. Lavoie did not manage to score a single goal for months; later on in the season, he was regularly demoted or benched and he did not suit up for the Pre-Playoffs at all. 

Rumours abound of attitude problems, but whatever the case, AT clearly did not trust him. Not all signings are going to work out. Yet, when we were starving for goals, the man supposed to be our goalscorer was nowhere to be found.

Ege and Atwal disappoint after dazzling preseason

Possibly a bit harsh, but Wyatt Ege and Arvin Atwal can be put here, too. In pre-season, they looked absolutely sensational, leading me to think we would be a changed team on D. It was not to be. Atwal had some crowd-pleasing moments as our enforcer and security-guard-in-chief, but for much of the season he was essentially a liability that donated power plays to the other team. Ege, on the other hand, consistently flattered to deceive. He looked like the type of player who should provide a lot of offense from the blue line, but he mostly didn't. He looked like the type of player who should defend very well in a technical manner, but he mostly didn't. Both of these guys were noticeably failing in their defensive duties during out loss-streaks. 

Clearly, they were not the main reasons for those losses. However, you would want our marquee defensive signings to be able to stem the tide in those situations, which did not happen nearly enough. The cherry on top was seeing Atwal 'liking' Pustertal's game-winning-goal on Instagram while out injured (obviously not his fault and I wish him well in his recovery) and hearing from a friend of the blog sitting near Atwal at the first home game that he was celebrating Pustertal goals before visibly realising he shouldn't be doing that. Of course he still has friends on the team, but any vague thoughts in one's head might suggest not to celebrate when the opposition scores in a knockout series?

I wish both of these guys well, but - spoiler alert for Season Review Part 2 - I don't want them back next year. Not when we can promote our young stars in Bohinc and Hebar; not when we can sign guys like Shawn Lalonde, who make more of an impact on the game in their ice time.

Injuries

As broached in 'The Good', injuries really took their toll this season. Here's a brief list of players who missed significant time:

Kale Kerbashian, Žiga Pance, Žiga Pavlin, Rudolf Červeny, Jaka Sodja, Žiga Mehle, Arvin Atwal, Lovro Kumanović, Luka Vodlan, Maris Bičevskis, Jan Ćosić, Blaž Tomaževič.

As you can see, that covers a pretty enormous chunk of the squad. As I said at the time, you can't deny that having to constantly chop and change the lineup due to injuries was a key factor in dismantling the good start we had under Coach Karhula, leading to his dismissal.


The Ugly 

The Powerplay

Per the league website, we went 28/143 on the year for 19.58%. This isn't as bad as I expected. Outside the stats, though, is the lack of production when it counts. It felt like every time we really needed a PPG, we could never get it, instead aimlessly passing around the perimeter for two minutes. The lack of creativity before Bonino's arrival was almost comical - the plan was to set up Sabla for a one-timer....and nothing else. Once Červeny established himself, he doubled our PP plans - we would just do the same for him on the opposite side! 

I don't mean to be facetious here, these guys are trying their best, but it was immensely frustrating to watch as a fan who deeply cares about the team. On top of all this, we conceded 5 shorthanded goals and scored only 1 ourselves. All 5 of those were absolute momentum killers, stopping us stone cold in our tracks. That has to be reduced next season - the only thing worse than barely ever scoring on our PPs is to let the other team score themselves!

The loss streak to get Karhula fired; the AT good times stop rolling

As addressed below, this speaks to our team's lack of identity. We couldn't sustain stretches of good play long enough. These inspiring periods of flying high with wins were always followed by plumbing the depths with deflating losses. Next season, we need to build a more repeatable game plan that guards against these massive peaks and troughs and helps us settle into consistent play that progressively improves throughout the year, culminating in (at least) a Pre-Playoff series victory. Anything less is unthinkable for a leadership group with ambition.

Losing 2-0 to HCP in the Pre-Playoffs

Getting bounced by HCP, despite comfortably being ahead of them in the table and beating them (albeit in close games) 4/4 times in the regular season. We had a nice moment with Bonino and Kapel combining to score a goal in the first 5 minutes of the first game, and then precisely nothing for the other 115 minutes. Horak was left alone to fight for our right to party into the next round.

Team offense/scoring points 

Kapel had a pretty good season, right? Especially the turnaround with AT? He scored 15 points in 49 games. That's good for 0.30 points per game. Stats aren't everything, but they are useful for dispelling mirages. We need players who are pushing to move up to the better European leagues, pushing point-per-game totals. Playoff teams like VSV have these guys. Instead, we have a team full of 4th-liner-type point totals. Let's put it this way, you wouldn't be drafting many OLL players in fantasy if the ICE League ever made that up. Even our leading points scorers, Sabla and Mašič, were never consistent enough to make you feel confident that goals were coming.

Team identity

At the risk of sounding like someone in a 'situationship', what are we? What do we hang our hat on and say "that's the Olimpija way"? We looked great, then we looked awful. We fired our coach. Then we looked great, then we looked awful. We get knocked out of the Pre-Playoffs. 

What is the identity of this team? We don't hit very much (although this did improve late in the season), we aren't a particularly skilful or finesse kind of team (barring some players like Žiga Pance and Kale Kerbashian). We need a new, experienced coach with a clear vision of what this team should be. 

Now, let's be fair here - in the culmination of the season vs HCP in the Pre-Playoffs, we played a close game at home that we should have won and then faced an undoubtedly tough matchup 1-0 down away in Brunico. You can't ignore how that second game went down, though. Here's my first draft paragraph:

"Our main calling card, in all brutal honesty, is to vanish when the going gets tough and leave Horak on an island, fighting like a gunslinging octopus to stop the barrage of pucks flying his way. He can do it all, we've seen that, but he can't also score goals. It was deeply shocking to see every single skater in the second Pustertal game make almost no positive, needle-moving impact. We had Kerbashian hit the post on a nifty move of his own, and that was about it. We have to be more than this next season, otherwise we are nothing."

Is that too harsh? It certainly reflects the raw emotions I felt after what amounted to a betrayal by Olimpija - a betrayal of themselves as the better players and team, as well as a betrayal to their fans by playing so far below their potential. I hope for a happier conclusion to the relationship in '25-'26.


What should stay the same?

Goalies

Horak is a gift from God; Kolin deserves more playing time.

Penalty Kill

League-leading, enough said. 101/126 for 80.2%. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Development of Young Players

My favourite part of the season was getting to see more of Rožle Bohinc and Tian Hebar on defence. We must prioritise developing young players, as that can sustain fan interest even through the losses.


What do we need to change?

Coaching 

Although something like line deployment in the ICE League is not as clear-cut as in the NHL, it felt like we were not taking advantage of matchups at all. Maybe this was something I missed, but there was an overall feeling of general discombobulation, particularly exemplified by the classic Karhula 'too many men' penalties, which did rear their head under AT, too (albeit much less frequently).

I like AT, but it does seem that good vibes can only take you so far. We were pretty brutally out-coached when it mattered. What's AT's outlook? I think he could be a useful Slovene assistant coach to an experienced new coach coming in the summer, but if he was not willing to accept a demotion I think he needs to go elsewhere to gain more coaching experience and tactical knowledge before any return to OLL. 

Powerplay 

Ideally, we would hire a specialist, but if not, a new coach should make this their priority. The last two seasons have produced far more groans from the stands than goals on the ice. Our league-leading penalty killing efforts go to waste if we can't convert our own man-advantage opportunities.

Team Offense 

There didn't seem to be a clear plan of attack. We had moments where it all clicked together, but rarely sustained any excellence. A new coach must have a vision for how this team will attack the opposition and score goals consistently.

Chances Against 

Linked with team offense, if we don't control possession well we will give up a lot of high-danger chances the other way. This happened far too often for a team that wasn't scoring much.

Goalie Rotation 

I would split it 50-50, with Kolin starting away games and Horak starting home games. Horak is sensational, but we also really have something in Kolin. Let's develop him and keep both goalies fresh and battle-tested for a long season.

Physicality 

We have tended to get bullied by physical teams such as PIV last season and HCP in the Pre-Playoffs. The emergence of Rožle Bohinc helps with this, but we must sign more physically dominant players this season and encourage our current crop of guys to throw their weight around more. If we don't hit and we don't score, what exactly do we do?


The End 

Thank you for reading. Next up on the off-season agenda is the Season Review Part 2, a roundtable discussion of 'Should They Stay or Should They Go?'. Guests include former guest writer GB, lead OHB insider ŽG and potentially another oft-insightful friend of the blog. We will sprinkle in an awards ceremony, using the NHL end of season awards, as well as going player-by-player and getting opinions on what the squad should look like next season. 


Pre-Playoffs 2 Mini-Post-Mortem

The dream is dead, long live the dream!

HCP 2 - 0 OLL

Dragons get dominated in biggest game of the year

Regular season sweep counts for nothing as HCP bounces us in 2

Stats


The shot chart tells the story. Look at the blue shield wall of HCP blocking our shots on the right-hand side, above. Look at the barren wasteland of blue offense on the left-hand side. Look at HCP scoring from the low slot on the right, and the right circle on the left. Classic places to score, reinforced with total commitment to shot-blocking and controlling the game throughout. 

Their whole aesthetic is ugliness. Their head coach has the kind of peninsula/archipelago hairstyle that Shoresy and Sean Avery politely discussed on the fictional 3-on-1 podcast (Shoresy Season 4 - language warning if you watch the clip, starts about 1:16 in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWSGmOoA5Js). Their assistant coach looks like he'd give 'Big Dom' of the SuperBowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles a decent run for his money (he's their enormous head of security). They have ugly coaches and they play ugly hockey, but they win when it matters most. You have to respect it, even if you dislike them.

According to the ICE League site, shots on goal were 29-19 HCP-OLL. I had it quite differently on shots-saves for OLL at 5 on 5:

P1: 12-7 (OLL PP)

P2: 7-10 (HCP G, OLL PK)

P3: 7-4 (HCP G)

Either way, it doesn't matter. HCP took their chances and locked the game down.

Summary

We came close to scoring twice, once through Gregorc's paddle shot being spectacularly saved by the infamous Pasquale and also through Kerbashian hitting the post on a move in close. That was it. The game ended in classic doomed Olimpija fashion, with multiple goals needed and the season slipping away, we slowly moved the puck around the perimeter of the offensive zone, barely getting a shot off. The dream dies with a whimper, despite the usual last stand Horakian heroics. There was also, of course, the hallmark Olimpija 'too many men on the ice' penalty in the 2nd period. We died as we lived, at least.

My final game note from that evening:

In the first game, we played better and lost. In the second, we played worse and lost. Teams seem to be able to constantly figure us out after a good P1. Part of the reason I have enjoyed following Team Liquid in Valorant eSports this year is down to Coach Lohan's consistent ability to create clever strategies and counter-strategies against each opponent. Did we see anything like that from our coaching staff? HCP comprehensively and totally out-coached and outplayed us. We scored in the first 5 minutes of the first game and then never troubled the scorecard again. Outside of Horak, who played like his life depended on it, did anybody make a good account of themselves? Bonino and Kapel had a nice moment on that lone goal, but aside from that, I cannot recall any skaters putting together consistently impactful play.

I think I preferred last season, when we had a worse squad who outperformed expectations instead of this better squad who underperformed expectations.


4 comments:

  1. Amazing review of the season, looking forward to pt2 with guests! Even though I only started following you in January this year, I must say I really enjoy your content as well as your writing style. This blog somehow became one of my favourite sources for my "get-to-know-hockey-better" mission as I'm fairly new to this sport but eager to learn more about it. Great job!

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    1. Gosh, thank you so much for this - my first ever comment! I don't think they'll get much better than this!! Thank you very much for reading. I have the same mission; I hope I can help you on yours over the summer and into next season :)

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  2. Looking forward to part 2 with guests, part 1 was amazing

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    1. Many thanks for blessing me with my second ever comment - I will work hard to make sure part 2 is even better!! It'll take a couple of weeks to put together though, so stay tuned :)

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GAME 33